teams in the second round, and they should hope it is the Lakers, whose size creates a chess game the Rockets can win - their best chance of reaching a third conference finals in six years.How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. In all likelihood, they will meet one of the two L.A. The Rockets can avoid that altogether in the first round, but it is ridiculous to think they can survive the Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks without their slim margin of error haunting them. Houston’s success will depend on how often it can pummel you with 3-pointers and avoiding a cold streak in a high-leverage game like the one that ended its 2018 playoff run. But depth on the wing has long plagued the Thunder, and that can be a bigger problem against the Rockets. Paul helped Harden to a Western Conference finals before their relationship soured to the point it necessitated Houston’s trade for Westbrook. OKC’s three-point-guard lineups would be an interesting matchup, especially since it would pit Harden and Westbrook against Chris Paul on their former team. The Jazz and Mavs are both missing starters, especially limiting their ability to counter a Houston barrage.
are more likely to meet one of the other four teams, and they have the firepower to leverage mismatches against all of their best bigs, even if Nikola Jokic and Kristaps Porzingis pose similar mismatches on the other end. The Clippers should put fear into the Rockets, because they can beat Houston at their own game. The Rockets realistically could face any one of the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder or Dallas Mavericks in the first round. 14: Philadelphia 76ers, TBD Best-case scenario If the time off served both aspects of his game well, the Rockets have yet another flamethrower in their arsenal. He is shooting at his worst clip since an injury-plagued 2011-12 campaign, and the athleticism he showed he still had in last year’s playoffs has been diminished as well. One other player who could significantly improve Houston’s chances is Eric Gordon, whose knees have limited his impact once again. Houston has tried Covington and Green at the five, among others, to less success in smaller stints, and leaning more on a 37-year-old Tyson Chandler would be wishful thinking when he has played only 219 minutes this season. Nobody else on the roster has the strength and skill to raise Houston’s ceiling as a small-ball threat quite like Tucker. Remove Tucker from that equation, and things begin to fall apart. The new small-ball starting lineup - Harden, Westbrook, Covington, Tucker and Danuel House - has outscored opponents at a blistering clip of 12.4 points per 100 possessions in a not-insignificant sample size. He has been an ironman since returning to the NBA from overseas in 2012, missing only eight games over the past eight seasons, and he must continue to be in order for the Rockets to have any chance of advancing deep into the West playoffs. Tucker to defend opposing centers as a 6-foot-5 35-year-old who was battling a shoulder injury when the season was suspended.
The fit between Russell Westbrook and James Harden is imperfect but explosive. Tripling down on wings, the Rockets also signed David Nwaba and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to replace Sefolosha and backup center Isaiah Hartenstein, who was waived. In addition to dealing for Covington, Morey acquired Bruno Caboclo at the deadline before signing vets Jeff Green and DeMarre Carroll shortly thereafter. Both expect to be in uniform for the restart. Westbrook remains quarantined following a positive COVID-19 test, and Harden only joined the Rockets on Thursday, citing a family obligation. Fellow former MVP James Harden was equally productive, and any tandem that can regularly drop 60 points has a puncher’s chance to unseat anyone in a given series. In 11 games following the deadline, he averaged 31.7 points (on 55/39/73 shooting splits), 8.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists in 35.9 minutes a night. A six-game winning streak bookended by victories against the Boston Celtics showed signs the experiment just might work, but the four-game losing streak that followed exposed the flaws of relying almost entirely on the 3-point shot.Īt the very least, surrounding Russell Westbrook with four shooters unlocked the former MVP. It was a mixed bag in the 14 games before the break. Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey pushed his chips all in on small ball at the trade deadline, swapping Clint Capela for Robert Covington and signing a few more veteran wings to bolster his center-less rotation.
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